Covid’s third wave starts to bite

Three provinces hit by rising numbers of infections

EXPERTS are convinced that the rest of the country will inevitably follow suit after three provinces confirmed they entered their third wave of Covid-19 this week.

Professor Adrian Puren, acting executive director of the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NCID), confirmed the country had not yet met the criterion for a national resurgence but the Free State had entered its third wave.

Additionally, Gauteng Premier David Makhura and Eastern Cape Premier Oscar Mabuyane said on Friday their provinces were batting the third wave.

According to the national department of health and the NICD, Kwazulunatal, Mpumalanga, North West and the Western Cape have had sustained increases over the last couple of weeks.

The information also showed that while the Northern Cape never technically exited the second wave it had a steady increase in cases. There were 10 669 new infections between this Monday to Friday and 7665 cases during Monday and Friday for the previous week. As the national third wave loomed, Health Minister Zweli Mkhize said meetings were being held with the National Coronavirus Command Council and Ministerial Advisory Committee (MAC) on how best to hold off the national resurgence. But Mkhize conceded the country would have to enforce additional restrictions to combat rising infections.

“The reality is that as numbers rise, we have to increase restrictions and when they go down, we ease them. We are going to recommend more focus on the size of gatherings,” said Mkhize.

Infectious diseases epidemiologist Professor Salim Abdool Karim, former chairperson of the Covid-19 MAC, said the third wave would hit in winter between June and July.

“Complacency is the enemy. When we let our guard down and think we’re safe, we get hit the hardest,” he said.

Last weekend, it was learnt the country not only had to contend with the 501Y.V2 variant that caused the second wave but also the B1.617 devastating India and the B1.1.7 variant dominant in the UK. However, Abdool Karim said he was not concerned about the new arrivals.

“There are similarities between them and the 501Y.V2 and the country made it through the second wave. I don’t think these new variants will cause the third wave,” said Abdool Karim.

He said his greatest fear was a new variant born and bred in the country that bypassed immunity the population gained during previous waves.

“The 501Y.V2 was found in our country, what if it happens again? If a new variant emerges with the ability to avoid immunity as the result of efforts we’ve made to mitigate previous variants then we could see reinfections.”

Infectious diseases specialist Richard Lessells, leader of the KZN Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform that discovered the 501Y.V2 variant, said preventative measures remained the same.

“The main determining factors are our behaviour, the quality of the public health response, and viral evolution. The virus needs us to travel and evolve. Fundamental public health responses and our prevention measures like mask-wearing and social distancing remain vital.”

He said, based on current understanding, people infected during the second wave had natural immunity from the 501Y.V2 and were likely protected against infection from other variants like the B.1.617 and B.1.1.7.

Hopes to end the pandemic, in the long run, are tied to vaccinations, but not likely prevent the third wave.

Professor Mosa Moshabela, health committee chairperson of the Academy of Science of SA, said to achieve current goals, the country needed to vaccinate 250000 to 300000 people per day.

“The roll-out programme is unfolding at a painfully slow pace. We have done enough in securing vaccine doses, but not enough in preparing the country to receive vaccines and vaccinate people.”

The national department of health set the vaccination target at about 40.4 million people to cross the 67% threshold needed for herd immunity and estimated it to be achieved in February 2022. Currently, the only vaccinations are part of the Sisonke Study for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Professors Glenda Gray and Linda-gail Bekker, principal co-investigators of the study, had to vaccinate 500000 healthcare workers since it began in February and at the start of the weekend, just under 500000 healthcare workers had been vaccinated.

But the study was hindered when it was suspended by the SA Health Products Regulatory Authority on April 13 to investigate rare and severe blood clots detected in six vaccinated Americans.

The study resumed on April 28, but it ends this weekend and would not be expanded to the public as phase 2 of the national roll-out was expected to begin tomorrow. The health department was expected to vaccinate the country’s remaining 500 000-700 000 healthcare workers.

Tomorrow’s roll-out is for those over the age of 60, and from July, people over 40 would be added to phase 2, as well as those in old-age homes and prisons, according to the health department.