Ukraine war a test for China, Russia alliance

AMID the global economic uncertainty triggered by Russia’s war on Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have pledged to “inject stability into a turbulent world”.

In a rare admission, Putin said he was aware of China’s “questions and concerns” about the war, but assured Xi he would address them all in their first face-to-face meeting since the February 24 invasion.

Meeting on Thursday on the sidelines of a summit for the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation in the Uzbek city of Samarkand, Xi said China was willing to work with Russia to “demonstrate the responsibility of a major country to play a leading role and inject stability into a turbulent world”, according to Chinese state TV.

Xi also said China would support Russia’s core interests – which include Ukraine – as the two countries test the boundaries of their friendship disrupted by Russia’s setbacks in the invasion. The detached formality of their meeting was a far cry from the warmth of their “no limits” friendship agreement, when Putin attended the Winter Olympics in Beijing, just weeks before the war.

“We highly value the balanced position of our Chinese friends regarding the Ukrainian crisis, we understand your questions and concerns on this matter, and during today’s meeting we will of course clarify all of these in detail,” Putin said in his opening remarks.

In a nod to Xi’s interests, Putin added that Russia was committed to the one-china principle and “condemned the provocations” of the US in Taiwan.

The Russian statement about the meeting said the partnership ensured “global and regional stability”.

“The countries jointly stand for the formation of a just, democratic and multipolar world order based on international law and the central role of the United Nations,” it added.

The two leaders’ meeting in February to declare the beginning of their “no limits” partnership signalled the start of a new alignment of two of the world’s most powerful authoritarian states. Their latest meeting came at a fragile time for both leaders, however, testing how boundless that friendship really is.

Russian forces have suffered

stunning losses on the battlefield in Ukraine. Beijing, meanwhile, finds itself increasingly at odds with Western countries over Taiwan and human rights abuses in Xinjiang.

For Putin, the meeting sends a crucial message that he remains a global player, with friends who share his authoritarian views and determination to create a new world order in which the US no longer dominates.

For Xi, his first trip abroad in almost three years marks his diplomatic re-emergence before a party congress in October when he expects to secure a precedent-breaking third term.

“The Chinese readout suggests a lot of substantive co-operation, but the tone is rather detached and unemotional,” said Yun Sun, director of the China programme at the Stimson Center (a US think tank in Washington). “The Russian readout is more enthusiastic, only short of singing a song for the bilateral relations.”

Yet Xi is unlikely to offer Putin more concrete support. Doing so could risk Western fallout that would exacerbate a growing list of domestic challenges, including a slowing Chinese economy, property crisis and public discontent with strict zero-covid policies.

China has maintained a delicate balance on Russia’s war against Ukraine, calling for peace while endorsing Russian complaints that Nato was to blame because of the alliance’s expansion. Beijing has tried to lend moral support to Putin without outright backing the invasion or sending financial or military assistance that would incur secondary sanctions.

Having pledged to maintain normal trade relations with Moscow, China has continued to export goods to Russia as well as import Russian oil and gas. Bilateral trade grew 31% for the first eight months of the year, according to Chinese customs data.

China is likely to continue its

approach, which some analysts have termed the “Beijing straddle”, of diplomatic support for Russia in a partnership aimed at countering a Washington-led international order while also complying with Western sanctions.

White House spokesman John Kirby told CNN on Thursday that he thought no country should be on the sidelines over the Ukraine situation. “The whole world should be lined up against what Mr Putin is doing,” he said.

“This is not the time for any kind of business as usual with Mr Putin.”

In Uzbekistan, Xi faces the added awkwardness of maintaining neutrality while attending a summit with Central Asian countries, most of which oppose the war and worry about possible Russian incursion into their territories.

Before flying to Samarkand, Xi visited Kazakhstan where he met President Kassym-jomart Tokayev in a symbolically important first stop, where he appeared to send a subtle message about the Ukraine war, vowing to strongly support Kazakhstan’s efforts to protect its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, “no matter how the international situation changes”.

Russia has shown irritation at Kazakhstan’s refusal to endorse the war or to recognise the independence of two Russian proxy “republics” in eastern Ukraine.

Like Ukraine, Kazakhstan has a sizeable Russian-speaking component, about 18% of the population, concentrated in the north of the country. With Moscow’s often-stated historical mission to protect Russian speakers around the world – one of the reasons it gave for the Ukrainian invasion – they are a viewed as a source of insecurity.

Xi’s travels to Central Asia are part of long-term efforts to establish better trade routes and connectivity through the region, an increasingly urgent task as China faces the possibility of conflict in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, which could hinder access to maritime shipping lanes.

In protest against a visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, China launched large-scale military exercises simulating a blockade of Taiwan’s main island last month, triggering what has become known as the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.

“This makes this trip quite important because Xi is basically there with a mission to convince Central Asian leaders that having a strong relationship with China is still important (and to) please consider our goals and what we can give you,” said Niva Yau, senior researcher at the OSCE Academy, a foreign policy think tank in Kyrgyzstan.

In Central Asia, where countries for years have had to navigate between two giant powers locked in quiet competition, a diminished Putin could give Beijing a chance to expand its footprint.

“The saying is China has the deep pockets and Russia has the guns,” said Theresa Fallon, director of the Centre for Russia Europe Asia Studies in Brussels.

“The question now is, as Russia’s military footprint possibly recedes in the region, will China’s grow?”