Swapo on the edge ahead of crucial polls

WILL Namibia be the next country in southern Africa to kick out a political party that has been in power since independence?

In a year that has proven fatal for many ruling parties across the region, Namibia’s election on Wednesday is set to be a tight contest for the ruling South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo).

In the past six months, the ANC in South Africa lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of apartheid.

The Botswana Democratic Party was ousted after almost six decades in power, and though the ruling Frelimo won recent elections in Mozambique, civil society and opposition groups have demonstrated for weeks claiming fraud and demanding change.

Apart from Botswana, “these are countries that experienced their liberation much later than a lot of the other countries on the continent”, said Nic Cheeseman, a professor specialising in African politics at the University of Birmingham.

Namibia gained independence in 1990, while Mozambique’s civil war ended in 1992 and South Africa’s first free elections were in 1994.

Today, it is those known as the “born frees” – after independence – who represent a large chunk of the electorate.

“They don’t remember the liberation struggle, the solidarity and loyalty to the party that was generated then,” said Cheeseman.

If younger voters are turning away from the parties that liberated their country, it is often because of their poor record, particularly on the economy.

“Those parties have been seen to be failing to provide for the people. Jobs, in general, are a challenge, the youth are not working,” said Tendai Mbanje, an election expert at the Johannesburg-based African Centre for Governance.

“Born-free” voters are also digital natives – a key aspect of Mozambique’s post-election contestation, where opposition leader Venancio Mondlane has used social media to communicate with his supporters.

This has been “a game changer” according to Mbanje.

“Mainline media is traditionally controlled by the state in these countries... now young people can express themselves freely online.”

To further their appeal to young people, politicians like Mondlane, who is 50, or Botswana’s new president Duma Boko, who is 54, have also modernised their appearance.

“Optics matter in politics,” said Mbanje. “Political figures looking young will always resonate with young people.”

But it’s not just young people turning away from freedom movements that have struggled to fulfil their promises.

For the older generations, “There is this frustration around the parties being seen to have kind of enriched themselves and not delivered for ordinary people,” said Christopher Vandome, senior research fellow with the Chatham House Africa Programme.

Corruption scandals have also tainted almost all of the liberation-era parties in the region.

“With this wave of transitions that’s occurred, I think that Swapo will be really nervous,” said Vandome.